The Paris Talks: A Diplomatic Breakthrough or a Jihadist Trap?
Source: https://israel-alma.org/
Alma Center Weekly Newsletter
According to reports in Israel and from additional sources, a new round of talks between Israel and Syria is set to resume in Paris on Tuesday (06 January, 2026).
The talks will reportedly focus on reactivating the 1974 Separation of Forces Agreement and Syrian demands for an Israeli withdrawal from territories captured following the collapse of the Assad regime, all under the banner of preserving Syrian sovereignty.
Shortly after Assad was toppled in December 2024, IDF forces deployed in the buffer zone along the Syria – Israel border to protect Israeli communities on the Golan Heights from hostile terror-military attacks.
On the surface, the Paris talks appear to be a standard diplomatic engagement. However, we cannot avoid the question: Who is sitting across from us at the negotiations table, and what does a ‘treaty’ actually mean to them?
The new Syrian regime, led by Ahmad al-Shara, emerged from the world of Salafi-jihadism. This creates a dangerous conceptual gap. For Israel and the West, an agreement is an end-state—a promise of reconciliation and stability. But in the jihadist worldview, an agreement with an « infidel » enemy is often viewed strictly through the lens of Hudna—a temporary truce.
As we analyzed in our December 18 report (see link below), this concept is inspired by the historic Treaty of Hudaybiyyah. In this worldview, treaties are not expressions of a desire for coexistence, but tactical necessities born of military weakness. They are tools used to buy time, gain international legitimacy, consolidate internal power, and crucially, rearm for the next phase of conflict.
The agreement is valid only as long as the balance of power favors the enemy; once that shifts, breaking the treaty becomes not just a possibility, but a religious imperative.
Furthermore, we must be wary of Taqiyya—the principle of concealing one’s true ideology for the sake of survival. The « pragmatism » we see in Paris may simply be a mask. The Syrian regime is currently focused on domestic stabilization; a direct war with Israel does not serve its interests today. But this should not be mistaken for a strategic abandonment of a hostile worldview.
If Israel signs a deal in Paris, it must act from a position of sober security realism, not illusion.
As a result, Israel must act to secure an agreement that preserves its strategic interests and the safety of its communities along the Syrian border – even if this means maintaining a presence at military outposts on Syrian territory.
Sarit Zehavi
Alma Research and Education Center
https://israel-alma.org/
Alma Center Weekly Newsletter